Macro Dashboard
Source: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)GDP Growth—
Core CPI YoY—
Unemployment—
10Y Treasury—
HY OAS—
10Y-2Y Spread—
Growth & Activity
Real GDP Growth A191RL1Q225SBEA · QoQ SAAR
Unemployment Rate UNRATE · monthly
Nonfarm Payrolls Change PAYEMS · MoM, thousands
Initial Jobless Claims ICSA · weekly
Inflation
Inflation Trends Headline & Core CPI, PCE, 10Y Breakeven
Rates & Yield Curve
Policy & Treasury Yields DFF · DGS2 · DGS10
10Y-2Y Spread T10Y2Y · recession signal < 0
Credit Spreads
Corporate OAS ICE BofA · HY + BBB · FRED capped at 3y rolling window
HY
—
pctile—
BBB
—
pctile—
Financial Conditions & Recession Monitors
National Financial Conditions NFCI · 0 = average, < 0 looser, > 0 tighter
Sahm Rule Indicator SAHMCURRENT · recession trigger at 0.50
Recession Probability RECPROUSM156N · Chauvet-Piger smoothed
Fed Balance Sheet WALCL · total assets, $ trillions
Leading & Sentiment
Industrial Production YoY INDPRO · monthly YoY
U-Mich Consumer Sentiment UMCSENT · monthly
National Debt Projection
Federal Debt Predictor GFDEBTN · project forward at user-set CAGR or deficit growth
Current Debt
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10-Year Projection
—
20-Year Projection
—
Debt / GDP Today → 20Y
—
at nominal GDP growth below